Market Muses, Different Views

Looking at financial markets and investing through a poetic lens.

LayLine Asset Management Inc

Harry J. Campbell III, CMT

5/6/25

Sell in May

(A Perennial May Market Muse, keeps popping up, originally published 4/21/15)

Sell in May and go away you’ve heard so many say,

The original saying is said to go this way.

“Sell in May and go away,

Stay away till St. Leger’s Day”.

The original verse relates to an old English horse race,

But in the USA, it’s more an agricultural case.

Fall harvest money is invested with haste,

Come spring, it’s sent back to put new crops in place.

IRA and 401k contributions now add to the investment lore,

Invested prior to May before taxes make us poor.

The money flow dries up waiting for Yom Kippur,

When investing commences, providing opportunities galore.

Making investments based on Wall Street one-liners,

Often turning good investors into whiners.

However, the verse “Sell in May” is like a canary for miners,

It’s an early warning sign for summer equity climbers.

HJC

(St Leger’s Day race is run in mid-September)

LayLine Asset Management Inc

Harry J. Campbell III, CMT

4/1/25

Aprils Fools, Two

(First published 4/5/22, updated to current times)

As the Administration unleashes its tariff tools,

Growth and constrained trade are about to duel.

Economic growth thrives on renewal,

Otherwise, recessions emerge, just not cool.

Are Trade barriers that economic ghoul,

That adds recession to the possibility pool.

Recessions are selectively cruel,

Slower growth, fewer jobs, a toxic dual.

Certainly not a glittering economic jewel,

Recessions do redistribute economic fuel.

A positive outcome is not often the rule,

Perhaps though, we won’t be April 2nd fools.

HJC

LayLine Asset Management Inc

Harry J. Campbell III, CMT

3/4/25

Tariffs

So many questions on Tariffs.

Do they cause the economy to go adrift,

Will it drop off an avoidable cliff,

Or can Tariffs provide an economic lift.

Tariffs accentuate an international riff.

More than one country is quite miffed.

They tariff, we tariff, what’s the diff,

Is it really more than just a tiff.

Hard to say who truly gets stiffed,

Could be Tariffs are a total whiff.

Might require economy’s to make a shift,

Perhaps producing some economic gifts.

Prices, up or down, they’ll likely drift.

Through so many variables we need to sift,

To say one is certain would be amiss,

Have to collectively consider, what if.

HJC

LayLine Asset Management Inc

Harry J. Campbell III, CMT

2/4/25

Wall of Worry

(Original written 7/7/15, updated for today’s wall)

The markets climb a wall of worry,

Often assembled in quite a hurry.

Built with worry bricks and a noxious slurry,

The construct of the wall is often blurry.

Uncertainty adds bricks to the wall,

New tariff  bricks makes it tall.

Bricks of US debt adds to the haul,

What brick causes the wall of worry to fall?

Perversely, the wall protects us from the storm,

A responsibility it has commonly borne.

Making us aware of risks is the walls norm,

Ignoring those bricks, we will deeply mourn.

HJC

LayLine Asset Management Inc

Harry J. Campbell III, CMT

1/7/25

Over the past 10 years I have enjoyed taking on sometimes difficult concepts related to investing and converting them to prose or poetry, for a different view on the matter.  To date I count about 75 Market Muses covering a myriad of subjects, some serious, others more light hearted. 

Some are reprinted yearly;

Sell in May, September Winds, and Santa Claus Rally.

Others are reprinted when they are relevant to the current circumstances;

Trade War Or?, Hard to Discern, Markets Blind Eye, or Spark of Change.

Others are one off exercises;

Bear in the Market, Different This Time, Market Folklore, and Currency Pyre. 

Here are a couple of previously published Market Muses that are relevant to today’s investing environment.

QE Quandary

In this space you’ll find an alternative view,

Through the eyes of a closet muse.

Hopefully these more abstract clues,

Will add more clarity to market news.

While many may ponder current QE form,

Clearly, it’s gone way beyond the norm.

We know its economic growth we mourn,

Then why does the fed seem so torn?

Will more QE work in this disinflationary phase?

The question itself implies considerable haze.

Since we can’t see through a deflation malaise,

The feds been pushing inflation for a thousand days.

Common wisdom says you can't fight the fed,

So, it would seem that inflation is what’s ahead.

However, if they can't control it, it needs to be said,

Down the wrong path we will have been led.

HJC

Written January 2015, 1st Market Muse, as the FED embarked on QE, something the FED is still dealing with in 2025.

(QE: Quantitative Easing)

 Coming of an Economy

Change is quick this day and age,

Economic rhythms hard to gauge.

A change in step, turn the page.

Enter into to this economic maze.

Businesses will prosper as others fade.

Structure’s wilt, as they are made.

Who is left to do the trade?

What is left, what was laid?

Can’t look back to see it’s like,

Vision forward, not with hindsight.

Coming economy will be no blight.

Not to be too trite.

Coming economy, unique in a word.

Commonality joins this invigorated herd.

Tech brings the speed inferred,

Creativity leads its new shepherds.

HJC

Written in mid 2020 as the pandemic altered forever the US Economy. It still applies today as we continue to work through the economic changes taking place in the economy.

Battle Royal

We are about to be witness to quite a sight,

A battle royal, just like a lively WWE fight.

Like the bigger than life combatants on Saturday night,

Our characters enter the ring to prove their might.

In one corner we have the FED and its rates,

Powerful, thoughtful, and always late.

In the other POTUS, the one we love to hate,

Colorful, calculating and quick out the gate.

The bell rings, markets are wound in a tight coil,

Our two titans of power have begun their toil.

In a ring whose ropes extend beyond US soil,

Like chairs and tables, the US$ is a common foil.

As we watch this brawl take shape,

Wild blows of rhetoric cause the audience to gape,

The battle pours out of the ring, there is no escape,

An epic battle royal has begun, it’s no debate.

HJC

Written in 2017 as the President and the FED went at it.  Likely to see a similar brawl between the same contenders in 2025.

FED: Federal Reserve

POTUS: President of the United States

US$: US dollar

WWE: World Wrestling Entertainment

Copyrighted 2025, LayLine Asset Management Inc

LayLine Asset Management Inc

Harry J. Campbell III, CMT

12/3/24

Trades

Dollar Trade,

Strength conveyed.

Yen Carry Trade,

Somewhat decayed.

Bond Trade,

Challenging decade.

Commodities Trade,

Begun to cascade.

FED Trade,

Can’t be downplayed.

Election Trade,

Don’t be dismayed.

Equities Trade,

Beyond the grade.

Markets Trade,

Opportunities weighed.

HJC

LayLine Asset Management Inc

Harry J. Campbell III, CMT

10/1/24

October Surprise?

(Originally published 10/5/21)

An October surprise?

Consensus surmises,

Often popularizes,

Mostly theorizes.

Fear tantalizes,

Prospect of demise,

Never formalized,

Not often realized.

Not to compromise

It may arise,

Prudent to organize.

An October surprise?

HJC

Copyrighted 2024, LayLine Asset Management Inc