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Fall Leaves

Harry's Monthly EView

  • HJC
  • May 6
  • 21 min read



Harry’s Monthly EView

LayLine Asset Management Inc

Harry J. Campbell III, CMT

5/6/25

 

 



Contents

Investment Thesis: Tariff Induced Economic Scarcity

Investing for Retirement: Investing in Retirement Plans in Down Markets

Retirement Topics: Important Retirement Documents

 

 

Investment Thesis: The Communication Economy

  

Thesis Statement

The central claim is that Communication, and what develops from it, will be the primary force in the economy, driving growth, structure, diversity, and resiliency in the US economy for a very long time to come.

 

 

 Tariff Induced Economic Scarcity

 

            The economic effects of the new round of US tariffs are numerous and widely varied.  Some suggest they are inflationary, but why then does Japan and India, who both have extensive tariffs and trade restrictions, have, and have had, little inflation.  To say it is different in our case lacks a certain degree of analysis.  Just b/c tariffs increase the cost of a widget (economic term for products) the price may be so high that it means that widget will not be purchased, the consequences somewhat similar to a trade embargo.  This is where tariff induced economic scarcity comes in to play.

 

            For the purposes of this discussion, economic scarcity refers to the scarcity created from restrictively high prices and not from a lack of widgets, as we find ourselves today with tariffs.  So far tariffs have not reduced the ability to provide widgets, at least not this early into the new tariffs regime. It’s at what price can the widgets be got at, and that price today for many widgets is so high (100% tariffs will do that) as to create a scarcity of widgets.  This scarcity can be, or is, causing significant difficulties for the manufacturing and sale of a widget.  The complexity of many manufactured goods, with so many parts from so many different suppliers, it only takes the lack of one component in the manufacturing process to cripple the production of that widget, giving way to the scarcity for that widget. 

 

            It’s often been said that “the cure for high prices is high prices”, suggesting that over time alternatives can be found to get around the higher prices.  Consumers would replace high priced steak with lower priced chicken as an option for protein.  Nowhere is this more evident than when a company is faced with a scarcity of a needed widget due to high prices that compromises the ongoing nature of the company.  Companies are by their nature either nimble and adaptive or they are history, whether that is fair or not.  One might think of it as scarcity is a “mother of invention”.  It forces changes.  Perhaps it requires finding new vendors, or redesigning the process of making the widget, or redesigning the widget itself.  Granted this process may be difficult, as change often is.   But in the end, the required changes that are implemented will likely result in a better overall outcome.

 

            The tariffs announced on April 2nd were a shock to the system forcing a great deal of economically related change in a very short period of time.  We will see how economic organizations respond, who is nimble and comes through with new and innovative widgets and processes to build those widgets and those who are not that adaptive and fall by the wayside. In our new Communication Economy, the ability to apply new forms of communication such as AI (artificial intelligence) and making better use of existing forms of communication, i.e. the internet, will play a critical role in how companies react to the first real challenge to the Communication Economy.

 

 

Investing for Retirement

 

Investing in Retirement Plans in Down Markets

 

            The Market Muse this month is the classic “Sell in May”.  This article provides a direct opposite take on that phrase.  The Muse implies that from May to mid-September the markets will be lower.  This discussion suggests when it comes to investing in retirement plans, i.e. 401k and 403B, that it’s actually a time to invest and not be selling.  This specifically applies to employee’s retirement contributions that are immediately invested according to an employees investment allocation in the plan.

 

            Here is the rational for investing in a retirement plan when the market is heading down.  It’s akin to buying stuff on sale.  Rather than be thinking why invest when the market is going down, change the narrative to, why not buy the market when it is on sale.  If the market continues to fall, buy more assets “on sale”.  This way when the market does reverse, even if it takes a long time, the increased number of shares bought when prices were lower will provide more gains when one retires. 

 

Here is a recent example, it’s during the early days of the pandemic.  Assume for the sake of simplicity that contributions are made around the 1st and the 15th and we are buying $100 of the S&P 500 each time.

 

Date                S&P 500         # of shares $100 bought

2/3/20              3249                            .031

2/18/20            3370                            .030

3/2/20              3090                            .032

3/16/20            2386                            .042

4/1/20              2470                            .040

4/15/20            2783                            .036

5/1/20              2830                            .035

5/15/20            2863                            .035

6/1/20              3056                            .033

Total number of Shares purchased                 .314

 

First, as you can see when the S&P 500 was lower you were able to accumulate more shares.  If the S&P 500 had been flat at 3249 for the same period you would have purchased ~ .28 shares and if it was going up you would have accumulated even fewer shares.  By buying during this severe downward move you would have accumulated ~ 12% more shares.  By November 2020 the S&P500 was at ~3369 and all the share purchases were profitable. The same would have happened in 2022 when the S&P 500 went down from ~ 4766 to ~ 3588 and then up to over 6000.  Currently the same declining market situation, opportunity if you will, is presenting itself again. 

            

 

Retirement Topic

 

Important Retirement Documents

 

            This is not a legal abstract as we don’t provide legal advice.  This is simply a reminder of the various and common important documents one should have on file as we age.

 

Will or Trust:  Wills and trusts come into play after one passes.  Both are critical in the disbursement of investment assets according to the wishes of the deceased.  Which one to choose can be determined with the help of an attorney. Without a will or trust, the distribution of the estates assets will be determined by the probate process and not by the wishes of the deceased.  Without any direction from the deceased it is much more difficult for the heirs to get through what is a long and often difficult process.

 

DPOA (Durable Power of Attorney):  From an investment account standpoint a DPOA allows for an investment adviser (IA) to respond to directions from the person with power of attorney, on behalf of the client, when the client is not able to give directions.  Here is a classic situation.  A client falls and ends up in the hospital.  They need to access some of their investments to pay for health related expenses not covered by insurance, but can’t either contact or articulate those needs to the IA, commonly referred to as incapacity.  The person with the DPOA can call the IA and has the legal right to request the IA to send the client money from the clients investment account on behalf of the client.  Like most legal documents there are a myriad of conditions that apply, too many for this discussion.  This is where an estate planning attorney or an attorney experienced with DPOA is highly suggested in drafting the DPOA. 

 

Trusted Contact Designation:  This is a relatively new add to investment account paperwork.  While a DPOA allows an IA to act on instructions for the benefit of a client given by the person with power of attoreny, a Trusted Contact designation allows the IA (and custodian of the account) to initiate contact with the designated Trusted Contact when there is some concern about activity, usually unusual withdrawal requests, in an investment account.  If an IA thinks that the withdrawals might be related to fraud, the IA can contact the Trusted Contact to discuss the activity specifically.  The Trusted Contact cannot view the account, request a transaction, or inquire about account activity without having power of attorney.  The Trusted Contact designation is an extra layer of protection to consider.

 

Healthcare Directive: This another important document to have on record that will help someone who has the difficult task of trying to make healthcare related decisions on behalf of someone.





LayLine Asset Management Inc

Harry J. Campbell III, CMT

4/1/25

 

 Contents

Investment Thesis: Change in the Employee – Office – Business Culture Dynamic

Investing for Retirement: Capital Gains as Income

Retirement Topics: Taxes on Social Security Benefits


  

Investment Thesis: The Communication Economy

  

Thesis Statement

The central claim is that Communication, and what develops from it, will be the primary force in the economy, driving growth, structure, diversity, and resiliency in the US economy for a very long time to come.

 

 

Change in the Employee – Office – Business Culture Dynamic

 

            One of the four main aspects of the investment thesis is the change in the relationship between employees and employers, mainly from the adoption of work from home options.  The change in this dynamic has been facilitated by the increased capabilities of employees to communicate with the office from home.  Whether it’s video conferencing, texting, emails, old school phone calls, A.I. enhanced capabilities, and so on, new forms of communication is what’s making this change possible.  I don’t want to dismiss the difficulties being faced by management ranks trying manage and maintain an office culture, but, with change, often comes benefits.  Here are a few.

 

Less Pollution:  I still remember after two weeks of the economic shutdown in 2020, how blue the sky became.  It was dramatic.  With fewer cars on the road, the lighter pollution footprint from autos was substantially less, and that is a benefit for all of us.

 

Less New Office Space Needed: Not only don’t we need to build as many new office buildings, that need to be heated and cooled (energy savings), but older building can, with some creativity, be repurposed to benefit their surrounding neighborhoods.

 

Working Towards a 4 Day Workweek:  A long time ago the 5 day work week was just a dream, now it is the standard.  Perhaps the benefits and efficiencies of operating in a hybrid (some office and some work from home) work environment can bring around the 4-day work week without any cuts to productivity.  It will take a while, but certainly a possibility.

 

Less Expensive, More Productive Workforce: Companies will spend less time and energy maintaining and stocking offices.  Employees might find it more productive to work at night, or get more work done rather than spending hours getting to and from work.  Both can reallocate resources, time and money, to producing rather than managing.

 

Employee Benefits, Not the Paid Ones:  A hybrid work environment lowers the costs for employees to work and provides employees and their families with a new degree of flexibility in how they maintain their family.  This would result in a happier work environment, benefiting everyone.

 

Changes in Business Culture: Let’s face it, without getting into details or specifics, not all office cultures are beneficial for all employees.  I like to think that a new very creative set of management types will discover new management styles that will benefit both employees and their employers in ways we haven’t begun to think about.

 

Communications between us humans has been evolving since languages first developed.  Writing continued that evolution, followed by telegraphs and the telephone.  It continues today and just like we can’t imagine not having a phone, who knows what communication technique is coming down the road that we can’t imagine being without.  Remember, the smartphone is only about 20 years new.

 

 

Investing for Retirement

 

Capital Gains as Income

(Last published 4/2/24, updated for 2025 tax brackets)

 

The subject of “Capital Gains as Income” was first presented in about mid 2018.  I thought it was a good time to revisit the subject as things have changed, mainly the tax rates on capital gains at different levels of income.  Capital gains do not apply to tax-deferred investment accounts, only taxable accounts.

 

            There are two traditional sources of income in retirement, interest income (bonds, money markets) and equity income (dividends).  Both of which produce reasonably level sources of income relative to inflation (another subject).  There is a third, less discussed form of income available, that’s realized capital gains.  Caveat, capital gains are not to be counted on as we do traditional sources of income, but they can help to produce extra income after a run up in the equity markets.  Realized capital gains (you can’t spend it until you take it), when available, can be used to boost annual income. 

 

For example, we sell a position owned for more than one year and a day and realize a gain on the sale.  It’s referred to as long-term capital gain as opposed to short-term capital gains, those gains on positions held less than one year.  Most investors understand that long-term capital gains are taxed at a lower rate, but most assume it’s the 20% rate often repeated.  Here are the long-term capital gains tax rates for 2024 and 2025:

 

0% Capital gains tax applies if adjusted gross income (AGI) is less than;

$47,026 in 2024, $48,351 for 2025, for single filers.

$94,051 in 2024, $96,701 for 2025 for married filers. 

15% Capital gains tax applies if AGI is between;

$47,026 and $518,900 in 2024, $48,351 and $533,400 for 2025 for single filers.

$94,051 and 583,750 in 2024, $96,701 and $600,050 for 2025 for married filers. 

20% Capital gains tax applies when taxable incomes (AGI) are above the maximum 15% taxable income level. 

 

What’s important to note is that most investors will pay a 15% capital gain tax, not the 20% commonly referred to.  During retirement, when our AGI (adjusted gross income) is generally lower, many investors might not pay any capital gains tax.

 

Back to generating income with long-term capital gains.  The basic concept is to sell a position that has a long-term capital gain, reinvest the original capital, and use some or all of the realized capital gains to increase income, while still maintaining the principal investment base.  Here is the math, a $10,000 position moves up to $12,000 and is sold and we reinvest the $10,000 and use the capital gains for income purposes.  Assuming a 15% long-term capital gains tax ($300), that would leave $1,700 to support income.  Taken over one year, that would be an extra $142/month (after tax).  Short-term capital gains can be taken for income, but they don’t have the same tax advantage (taxed as ordinary income) as long-term capital gains.

 

Another way to look at it, if a $100,000 account last year earned 12% in capital gains, that would produce about $10,200 (after 15% long-term capital gains tax), or about $850/month, after tax, of retirement income.  Caveat, this is no way to grow an account, but it is a way to supplement retirement income when the markets provide some capital gains.  This is not to say that it all of the capital needs to be taken, some can remain in the account to build the principal value. 

 

            These examples indicate ways in which capital gains can be used to increased income and at the same time maintain an accounts principal value.  I’ll repeat, income generated from capital gains cannot be counted on and taking capital gains is no way to grow an account’s value.  But done right, realizing some capital gains can add to one’s income in retirement without compromising principal.

 

 

Retirement Topic


Taxes on Social Security Benefits


            Staying on the topic of taxes, here are the tax brackets and levels for social security benefits for 2025.

 

Singles:

If AGI (adjusted gross income) is below $25,000, no taxes on Social security benefits.

If AGI is between $25,000 and $34,000, up to 50% of benefits can be taxed.

If AGI is above $34,000, up to 85% of benefits can be taxed.

 

Filing joint:

If AGI is below $32,000, no taxes on Social security benefits.

If AGI is between $32,000 and $44,000, up to 50% of benefits can be taxed.

If AGI is above $44,000, up to 85% of benefits can be taxed.

 

            AGI is generally considered all the combined income for a household.  On IRS Form 1040, it’s line 11 for most folks.




LayLine Asset Management Inc

Harry J. Campbell III, CMT

3/4/25

 


Contents

Investment Thesis: The Communication Economy; Review

Investing for Retirement: Contribution Limitations for 2025

Retirement Topics: RMD Distribution Rates

 

 

Investment Thesis: The Communication Economy

 

Thesis Statement

The central claim is that Communication, and what develops from it, will be the primary force in the economy, driving growth, structure, diversity, and resiliency in the US economy for a very long time to come.

 


The Communication Economy; Review

 

It has been a while since I reviewed the basic tenants of the investment thesis for “The Communication Economy”.  First, here is what I wrote well over a year ago (grammatically errors and descriptive short comings maintained) when the current investment thesis was first purposed.

 

Millennials and Gen Z (Mill-Z) will shape everything:  The Mill-Z generation will reshape the economic and social structures in the US in ways not seen since baby boomers reshaped the US economy and social structure in the 70’s and 80’s.  We will still hold to many of our traditions and ways of interacting, but Mill-Z’s will take a different view and approach on most everything.  They will be faster adaptors to electric transport, quick to adjust to working from home or other satellite locations, and have a propensity for rapid uptake of technology.  Boomers rose out of the stagflation and inflation of the late 70’s and early 80’s and set a course for the economy that went well into the 2000’s, expect the Mill-Z generation to have even more wide-ranging effects.

 

Electrification of the Transportation Grid: The switch from an internal combustion driven transportation grid is, will be, one of the biggest changes in transportation in a century.  We will still get around like before, but with many more options.  From electric air taxis to driverless vehicles, electric propulsion will redefine how things are moved around, including us.  It also comes with the added benefit of reduced carbon emissions, something Mill-Zs are very big on and will propel this change forward with great enthusiasm.

 

Change in the Employee – Office – Business Culture Dynamic:  Change is difficult, especially when it happens literally in a blink of the eye.  The sudden move to working from home has forever altered the employer – employee relationship.  I’m going to go out on a limb here, but it is likely to be easier for Mill-Z employee to work from home then a baby boomer with 40 years of office experience.  Many will still say that the office is needed for maintaining or developing a business culture, and that might be true for some.  Mill-Zs on the other hand will be more open to developing other ways to create a business culture, perhaps better, more inclusive ones.

 

Acceptance of Technology in New Ways:  While I have no data to back this up, I would suggest that we are more flexible, mentally and physically, in our earlier years then later years.  Mill-Zs have already shown significant ability to adapt to new technologies.  Technology is key to increasing productivity (personal opinion), Mill-Zs are best positioned (more experienced) to successfully integrate the advantages of technology into the economy and society.

 

            Now that we have a new administration with a completely new agenda, A.I. (artificial intelligence) is making its presence felt directly in communications with its large language models, and a new round of tariffs that will, for better of worst, dislocate (at least in the near term) the US and global economic structure, here are a few comments.

 

Millennials and Gen Z (Mill-Z) will shape everything.

Given what Mill-Zs have had to deal with since 2000; the tech wreck, a major financial crisis and the first pandemic in a century, they are tested and more than experienced dealing with traumatic times.  My suspicion is that they will get through the current trials and tribulations in one piece and continue to press forward with their vision for the US.  

 

Electrification of the Transportation Grid.

It takes time to change something that has been around for over 100 years (gas powered transportation) and is so engrained in both the US social structure and economy.  I don’t think anything will stop this process, unless Mill-Z decide to abandon it.

 

Change in the Employee – Office – Business Culture Dynamic

What can I say, we are still, four years in the making, trying to figure this new business culture thing out.  But it doesn’t seem that we are going to go back to having all employees back in the corporate office all the time regardless of what old school managers thinks is necessary to run a business.  New, up and coming managers (not the old and in the way managers) will figure this out and down the road we will look back and wonder how did we ever do it the old way.

 

Acceptance of Technology in New Ways

            A.I. is just the beginning of the technological changes underfoot.  Older generations will continue to lament the changes and miss the old ways and wonder why it had to change.  This is nothing new, but, the rapid pace of technological driven change being seen today will be more of a challenge then in previous periods of technological change, even for the Mill-Z.

 

 

Investing for Retirement

 

Contribution Limitations for 2025

 

Retirement Plan Contribution Update

 

  • For 2025, 401(k), 403(b) and most 457 plans increased the maximum contribution to $23,500, up from $23,000 in 2024.  For individuals 50 and over, with the $7,500 catch up, the total contribution in 2025 increased to $31,000, up from $30,500 in 2024.  For individuals aged 60-63 the catch up contribution is $11,250 rather than $7,500.

  • SEP plan contribution limits for 2025 is 25% of earnings up to $70,000.  For 2024 it was 25% of earnings up to $68,000.

  • Solo 401K maximum contributions for 2025 for both individual and company contributions is $70,000, up from $66,000 in 2024.  For those 50 to 59, and 64 and over, the additional catch up is $7,500.  Those 60-63 the catch up is $11,250. 

  • Simple plans maximum contributions for 2025 is $16,500, up from $16,000 in 2024.  The catch up for 50 and over remains $3,500 for both years.

 

This is not a complete analysis of the current retirement plan rules, exceptions, and changes.  Visit IRS.gov, Retirement Plans for a thorough evaluation of specific plan types.  See IRS IR-2024-285, Nov. 1, 2024 for more details.

IRA Contribution Update

 

While on the topic retirement investing, there is still time to contribute to an IRA or Roth.  April 15th, 2025 is the deadline for IRA and Roth contributions for 2024. Having said that here are a couple of notes;

 

  • There is now no age limit on contributing to an IRA or Roth, however there are AGI (adjusted gross income) limits on contributions to either a traditional or Roth IRA.

  • There needs to be taxable compensation earned to make contributions.

  • You can contribute to both a IRA and a company retirement plan within the contribution limits, adjusted each year.  There are phase-out ranges if married and one spouse is covered by a company retirement plan.

  • A Roth needs to be open for five years before tax free gains can be withdrawn.  After the five years and reaching 59 ½, withdrawals can be taken tax free.

  • Contribution limits for 2025 are $7,000 or $8,000 if age 50 or older by end of 2025.

  • Contribution limits for 2024 are $7,000 or $8,000 if age 50 or older by end of 2024.

 

There are many nuances regarding traditional IRA and Roth.  This is not a complete discussion, just presented to create a little awareness.  For all the details see IRS Publication 590-A, 590-B for details.

 

 

Retirement Topic

 

RMD Distribution Rates

 

            When planning for retirement income sources and amounts over time, be aware that the RMD (required minimum distribution) on certain retirement accounts, as a percent of the account, increases over time.  The analysis below is to provide some insight on how the RMD increases as we age.

 

Age         IRS Dist. Period          RMD Amount              RMD Percent

  73                  26.5                             $377.36                        3.7%

  83                  17.7                             $564.97                         5.7%

  93                  10.1                             $990.10                         9.9%

103                    5.2                           $1923.07                       19.2%


The above example is for an IRA with a value of $100,000.  The calculation is to take the value of the account that requires an RMD as of the first of the year / Distribution period from the appropriate IRS table.  I do recommend that you have the custodian of any retirement accounts that require an RMD do the calculations as investors particular situation can make the calculations quite complicated.  See IRS Publication 590-B for details.

 



LayLine Asset Management Inc

Harry J. Campbell III, CMT

2/4/25

  

Contents

Investment Thesis: Artificial Intelligence (A.I.) Update

Investing for Retirement: 4% Rule Update

Retirement Topics: On the Horizon; Secure Act 3.0

 

 

Investment Thesis: The Communication Economy

  

Thesis Statement

The central claim is that Communication, and what develops from it, will be the primary force in the economy, driving growth, structure, diversity, and resiliency in the US economy for a very long time to come.

 

 

Artificial Intelligence (A.I.) Update

 

Last week the market was introduced in general terms to a new entrant into the A.I. arena “DeepSeek”, joining Chat GPT (OpenAI), Copilot (Microsoft), Llama (Facebook), Gemini (Google), Grok (xAI) to mention a few.  I mentioned that the market suddenly became aware of DeepSeek on Monday 1/27/25, but behind the scenes it has been known of for months.  I first heard of DeepSeek around the end of the 2024.  The scuttlebutt was that DeepSeek, from China, was produced using a fraction of the cost generally associated with designing and training Large Language models (LLM), the basis for A.I..  By all accounts, DeepSeek is quite powerful and has gotten the attention, and accolades, from many of the big participants in A.I..  It was also one of the most downloaded apps from the Apple store.  Before downloading it, understand that it is Chinese and it is reported to be able to transfer all information from the device it’s downloaded on, back to China.  I can’t confirm this so I suggest doing some research before trying it out.

 

I’m not an expert in this area, so take what I write with the grain of salt it deserves.  DeepSeek is an open-source program.  Meaning that all the computer code used to run it is out in the public so anyone with the capabilities can use all or part of the code to produce their own LLM with it.  Apparently the code was published last fall and a number of companies have already implemented some of that code to help in their efforts to produce LLM and Short Language models (SLM).  This is likely (natural hedge) to quicken the pace of adoption of both LLM and SLM.  More companies without the resources the big companies have are going to be able to incorporate this model, or parts of it, in their operation to lower costs and improve productivity.  Classic example of productivity gains would be in the processing of information that companies use to run their business, think health care, insurance, and accounting among others.

 

One of the prospects that unnerved the markets was the reported (can’t be confirmed yet) cost of developing DeepSeek, which is at a fraction of the cost of other LLM.  I.E., Microsoft has been reported to be spending up to $80 billion in capital expenditures (capex) on A.I..  DeepSeek was said (can’t be confirmed) to have been put together for less than $10 million.  There is plenty of skepticism around that number, but even if it is much greater, it’s still much less then what others are said to be spending. This of course has drawn into question the huge capex budgets currently being spent by some companies to build out or enhance their A.I. capabilities.

 

            Another aspect of DeepSeek that is new to those of us outside the A.I. profession is the term “Inference”.  Most LLM are trained using huge amounts of data, hence the huge cost associated with the training of the model.  Apparently DeepSeek uses a process of inference, inferring from what LLM have already learned to come up with, infer, an answer to a question.  Basically building on what is already been built, hence in theory, the lower cost of running an inference model.  I’m going to leave it at that, but suffice it to say there is plenty of information on the internet regarding this and other A.I. subjects if you are interested. 

 

            This discussion is purposely insufficient to provide a clear understanding of the ramification presented by DeepSeek and other A.I. models we are likely to see in the near (and getting closer) future. My purpose is to point out that the Communication Economy that is developing is happening at a very quick pace and we can expect changes to continue at a rapid pace, hang on to your A.I. hat.

 

 

Investing for Retirement

 

4% Rule Update

 

            Something to keep in mind regarding the so called 4% Rule.  Many investors taking RMD (required minimum distributions) will be required to take more than the 4% suggested by the rule.  For example, the RMD factor for an eighty year old is 20.2, translating to a ~4.95% RMD for the year.  That’s ~20% more income than the 4% rule suggests can be taken.  Taxable accounts have no RMD.  To keep distributions close to 4% on an overall account basis, one can take less than 4% from a taxable account to balance the 4.95% required to be taken from accounts with a RMD. 

 

4% Rule

(Originally Published 1/5/21)

 

The financial media is once again obsessed with the so-called “4% rule”.  It suggests how much can be taken from a portfolio each year without depleting its principal.  There is no official 4% rule.  It’s a rule of thumb at best, and it used to be the 5% rule.  There is exhaustive work behind the “rule” which indicates that there has been no historic precedence in US markets where an investor has taken 4% income (before taxes) over long periods of time (decades) and run out of principal.  If it were only so simple.

 

Before getting to the numbers, let’s look at who promotes the rule, Wall Street.  They have little incentive in promoting any distribution objective, as it reduces AUM (assets under management) and that reduces potential revenues.  When forced to come up with withdrawal advice, it will be conducive to growing an account more slowly, but growing it none-the-less.  By the way, if we make 2% in interest and dividends on a portfolio, investors only need 2% in capital gains to achieve the 4% withdrawal goal.  Long term market growth, by any measure, has exceeded 4% over time on an annual basis, making the 4% rule a fairly low hurdle to climb over.

 

Back to the numbers.  At the beginning of each year, for many retirees, the question is how much in withdrawals can I take without damaging the underlying principal that produces the income and capital gains to be withdrawn. 

 

Using 2020 as an example, let’s say a portfolio was up 10% (a 50% growth - 50% income benchmark was up ~ 13% in 2020).  Taking the 4% for income would leave a 6% gain in the portfolio. ($100,000 portfolio gains 10%, that’s $10,000, now take the 4%, $4,000, leaving a gain of $6,000, 6%).  The question is, bank the 6% for future years when the markets performance might be negative, or increase the 4% to 6%, spend a little more and still bank 4% for the future. 

 

As said, if only that simple. 

 

 

Retirement Topic

 

On the Horizon; Secure Act 3.0

 

            It may be premature to bring up Secure Act 3.0 (this is the third Act following the original Secure Act, and Secure Act 2.0) but as with the first two Secure Acts, there are suggestions for many positive and not so positive changes to retirement plans.  I will spare you the details (they are only talking points at this time), but as an example of the potential changes being tossed around is ending the ability to put money into a retirement plan pretax.  In other words all retirement contributions would be made after tax rather than pretax.  Those contributions could then be withdrawn tax free in retirement, in the same way a Roth IRA currently works.  I bring this up as one of the impetus of the first two Secure Acts was to increase income tax collections and I expect that will be the same with Secure Act 3.0.  Keep in mind that the first two Acts were enacted with very little public heads up. The same stealthy action will be likely occur with Secure Act 3.0.  




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The material, opinions, analysis and views contained on this website are the individual perspectives of Harry J Campbell, distributed for informational purposes only and should not be considered as individualized or personalized investment advice, a solicitation to sell or a recommendation of any particular security, strategy or investment product.  My analysis, opinions, comments and estimates constitute my judgment as of the date of this material and are subject to change without notice and may in fact be completely misplaced.

 

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