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Harry's Monthly EView

  • Apr 7
  • 21 min read



Harry’s Monthly EView

LayLine Asset Management Inc

Harry J. Campbell III, CMT

4/7/26


 

 

I have made the first changes in the format of Harry’s Monthly EView in over 11 years.  In place of the Investment Thesis: The Communication Economy will be “The Watch”, brief analysis of a variety of economic and market subjects, introduced in the Broadcast EView last month.  Another change you’ll find is that the Investing for Retirement and Retirement Topics has been combined into a single Retirement Topic, allowing for a little more focus on a particular retirement subject.  Market Musing will again be included Harry’s Monthly EView and continue to be published in the Market Muses, Different Views post. 

 

Contents

The Watch: AI, Jobs Outlook, Economic Expansion

Retirement Topic: Personal AI Retirement Agents

Market Musing: A.I. Oh My

 


Overriding Investment Thesis

The central investment thesis is that developments in Communication, such as we are seeing with large language models (LLM), will be the primary force in the economy, driving growth, structure, diversity, and resiliency in the US economy for a very long time to come.



The Watch

 

The main reason for the change in subject matter from an analysis of our Investment Thesis to “The Watch”, is that the thesis approach was too slow and methodical to recognize and capture the magnitude of the changes in the economy, markets, and society currently in play.  “The Watch” provides current analysis, probing for indications on the strengths and weaknesses in the economy, the direction of market sentiment, and how society is adjusting to the socio-economic changes coming our way, among other things.  Over time the topics covered will come and go depending on their current, not necessarily overall, relevance to understanding changes in the economy and market sentiment.  

 

AI

I’m watching for indications to see if (1) all the doom and gloom for jobs and many businesses will actually come to be or (2) will we witness AI providing new opportunities for employees, businesses and governments.

 

4/7/26 Update:  Several prognosticators have recently been heard to say that they think AI will actual increase not only the number of jobs but also improve the quality of the new jobs being provided.  We have seen this before.  It was thought at the time that the personal computer would replace office employees, when it in fact it created a whole new version of the office with many more jobs.  Another idea being offered is that new AI delivered services can reduce the cost of providing social and healthcare services to seniors and those that are most in need of it.  The thought is that the productivity potential (more than just gains) of AI will create a whole new level of human social and healthcare services that are still human based, but supported by AI.


3/17/26 Update: Couple of observations. I’m seeing many layoffs in the shipping and logistics corners of the economy.  This is an area that will be benefitted by AI ability to analysis so much more information, faster, to determine the best combinations of loads and routes.  Also seeing layoff announcements from many tech companies as they incorporate AI into the process of writing code.  Some of the giant social media companies are laying off a large percentages, up to 30% or more, of their workforce as AI handles more of the current work load.  What we haven’t seen (too early in the transition) are the new jobs, that we don’t know exist yet.  The delay between the reduction in the old economy jobs and the addition of the new economy jobs will define the degree of economic pain coming up.

 

Jobs Outlook

Between AI potential to obsolete many jobs, an older population demographic issue, and less immigration available for jobs, there are going to simply be fewer employees available in the US.  However, when combined with the potential productivity gains from AI, perhaps the US economy can operate with fewer employees and still manage to expand at a good pace.

 

4/7/2026 Update: The latest jobs report was by most accounts, very exciting.  The unemployment rate moved down to 4.3% and non-farm payrolls increased by 172,000.  Unfortunately last month numbers were revised down to a minus 133,000 jobs from minus 92,000.  For what it is worth, the three month average is about 70,000 new jobs in an economy that needs about 50,000 new jobs to maintain stability, relative to the unemployment rate.  It’s the pace and range that’s both perplexing, how can the numbers move that much in that short a period of time and yet understandable given the rapid pace of change rippling through the economy and labor force.  As mentioned above, the degree of labor pain can be defined by the time it takes to move from AI related job losses to AI induced job gains.  The longer the time between the period of losses and the period of gains the greater the difficulties will be in the labor market.  See the Market Musing below for a more positive spin.

 

3/17/26 Update:  The latest jobs report was by most accounts, very disappointing.  The unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, nonfarm payrolls decreased by 92,000, and December jobs were revised lower by 65,000 jobs to a negative 17,000 jobs.  January jobs were up 126,000.  In other words, and until the next revision, for the past three months the total number of jobs created was only 17,000, or about 6,000/month.  Based on the jobs data from the past couple of months, outside of healthcare, jobs are not only becoming hard to find but also difficult to hold on to. 

 

Economy Expansion

Current GDP (gross domestic product) estimates for the near future (one year out) are indicating a steady, if not a slightly lethargic economy with 1.8% annual GDP growth for 2026 (2025 annual GDP growth was 1.5% - 1.9%).

 

4/7/26 Update: Final 4th quarter GDP numbers will be out on 4/9/26.  That said, they are in the rear mirror. GDP for 2025 will end up around 2.1%, give or take, mediocre at best.  The only thing that will really matters now is the forecast for GDP for 2026 and 2027 now that a significant war has broken out in an economically delicate region of the world for both global and our domestic economy.  The continuation of the war will make it difficult to gleam any trustworthy GDP inferences as to the strength or weakness of the economy and or the markets.

 

3/17/26 Update: The most recent GDP estimate for the 4th quarter is now down to 0.7%, or about half of the prior estimate of 1.4%.  While that is certainly not the direction of growth we would like to see, drawing a conclusion from the 4thquarter considering the government shutdown (still a large part of the economy), is challenging and misleading at best.  That said, we are not seeing the general economic growth that many hoped for at this point in the AI cycle.

 

War in the Middle East

Rather than covering the war itself, it seems to me a better approach is to watch and see how the war influences particular aspects of the economy or resulting market action to gain any usable insights. 

 

 

Retirement Topic

 

Personal AI Retirement Agents

AI (artificial intelligence) agents (an AI generated personality) are developing into tools that Doctors, healthcare professionals and retirement services providers are starting to use to provide better outcomes by getting more comprehensive information, in a cost effective and timely manner, so more informed retirement and healthcare decisions can be made.  I use the term developing because at some point in the near future (not defined) personal AI agents will be able to develop an understanding of each of us individually, at a sufficient level, that the AI agent will be able to provide the most relevant information to help everyone involved make wide and diverse decisions regarding healthcare and retirement, just not yet.

 

From my own experience using common public AI, such as ChatGPT and CoPilot, I have seen it develop nicely over the past couple of years.  Early on in the development process, I found the information provided by the public LLM (large language model) were often challenged (some call it hallucinations) deserving of a significant lack of confidence in the quality and accuracy of the information being provided.  Over time the LLM will continue to learn what information we are asking for, how to present it to us, and or what tasks we want performed, just not yet.

 

On the topic of retirement, it won’t be long before personal AI retirement agents are available for seniors to work directly with.  With the proper training, a personal AI retirement agent will know your meds, suggest when to take them, reorder them when low, schedule appointments with your doctors, and schedule a ride there and back.  I could go on and on but I think you get my drift.  Personal AI retirement agents will relieve seniors of many difficult tasks allowing more time to focus on quality of life. They may even provide some company, something to converse with, just not yet.

 

Personal AI retirement agents are going to dramatically change retirement in ways we can only hope for. Just not yet. 

 

  

Market Musing

 

A.I. Oh My

(originally published 11/7/25)

 

A.I. is in the job beholders eye,

Not much reason to ask why,

Job uncertainty is quite high.

 

Many job categories will simply go bye-bye,

Relegated to where old jobs go to die.

Sentimentally, it does make one cry.

 

Finding entry level jobs are hard, no lie!

Job styles are changing, but to clarify,

Better jobs are on the way, oh my.

 

HJC

 







Harry’s Monthly EView

LayLine Asset Management Inc

Harry J. Campbell III, CMT

3/3/26

   

I’m going to forgo publishing Harry’s Monthly this month.  I feel the need to focus on overseeing investments as War in the Middle East continues to escalate, expand, and is likely to persist for some time to come.  I will be back at it next week. 

 

Take Care,

 

Harry



Harry’s Monthly EView

LayLine Asset Management Inc

Harry J. Campbell III, CMT

2/3/26

 

Contents

Investment Thesis: AI Agents

Investing for Retirement: Accumulation or Retirement Phase

Retirement Topics: Reminder: New Tax Deduction for Seniors.

 

Investment Thesis: The Communication Economy

 

 Thesis Statement

The central claim is that Communication, and what develops from it, will be the primary force in the economy, driving growth, structure, diversity, and resiliency in the US economy for a very long time to come.

 

AI Agents

 

Early on in the development of the Communication Economy thesis, the concept of communication as an economic widget (generic economic term for a product or service) was a challenge.  However, over the past year advancements in AI (artificial intelligence) / LLM (large language models) has culminated in what is referred to as an AI Agent, a communication widget of sorts, that is rapidly altering the traditional components of running a business.  AI agents (sometimes referred to as Bots and other things) are what we interact with, or in personal terms, to whom we communicate our needs to.  I recently asked Copilot (Microsoft’s AI interface) to build me a discounted cashflow model (fairly complicated financial analysis tool) and it did a very nice job and quickly.  But the unique feature of the encounter came in the form of a conversation (a series of questions, or prompts) about what aspects of the model I wanted to customize for my needs and that based on my comments it suggested some changes and modifications.   

 

The adoption rates of AI Agents is reported to be less than 20% among major US companies according to some Wall Street estimates.  Companies that have adopted some form of AI in their business have reported on their earnings calls some of their experiences with AI so far.  Here is a summary of the comments from several companies;

 

  • AI handles up to 30% of the coding needs for new products and services.

  • A trucking company reported double digit productivity gains using AI agents

  • Retailer is using AI to improve pharmacy inventory

  • Company reported more than a 30% output increase among some technical employees

  • AI agents are handling calls and emails almost perfectly

  • Insurance company is using AI to improve risk analysis, shorten lead times, and speed up claims handling time.

 

It turns out the first of the economic widgets of the Communication Economy are AI Agents.  They are being deployed by companies to help enhance productivity, support employees, and improve customer services.  Things are going to change a lot as we get closer to a 50% adoption level.

 

 Investing for Retirement


Accumulation or Retirement Phase

(Originally published 9/6/16)

 

As we transition from working for a living to retirement life, we all know we need to adjust to many changes.  When my father retired, mom was heard to say, “I married you for life, not for lunch, find something to do, please.”  For the purposes of this discussion, I’m going focus on the financial change that take place as we move from investing earned income (accumulation phase) to supplementing retirement income (retirement phase).  When earning an income, we strive to add as much as possible to our investment account balance and grow it, accumulating investment assets over our working life.  The accumulation phase of investing runs until we no longer have sufficient earned income to invest.  As we start to withdraw investment income and capital gains to supplement retirement income (social security, pensions), we enter the retirement phase of investing.  We continue to be investors; the emphasis however changes from building to maintaining our investment account balance.

 

Managing assets in the accumulation phase is as much the same, as it is different than in the retirement phase.  Generally (everyone is different) investors don’t stop being investors when entering the retirement phase, just a change in investment focus.  We might switch from individual small cap stocks to large cap dividend paying stocks or move from a group of individual stocks to a more diversified position like an ETF.  We might increase the portfolio yield (income as a percent of portfolio) by focusing on securities that produce income rather than those that produce capital gains.  We may carry more cash, for opportunities, protection and to cover those expenses that come up from time to time during retirement.  The key is that we remain investors for the rest of our lives and with any luck we will be able to pass our investment account balance to our heirs, providing assets for their accumulation phase.

 

Retirement Topic

           

Reminder: New Tax Deduction for Seniors.

 

The tax bill that was passed by Congress, commonly referred to as the OBBB, includes a new deduction for taxpayers aged 65 and older, seniors, effective for 2025 tax year.  Something to consider, if you pay estimated taxes, it might be worthwhile to consider recalculating estimated taxes for 2026 based on the new senior tax deduction.  As clearly stated in our disclosures, we don’t provide tax advice, having said that, here are the basics:

 

  • A $6,000 deduction is available, starting in 2025, for single seniors with MAGI (modified adjusted gross income) up to $75,000 and a $12,000 ($6,000 * two people) deduction for married seniors with MAGI (modified adjusted gross income) up to $150,000.

  • Above those income levels the deduction is phased out and becomes zero at $150,000 for singles and $250,000 for married, filing jointly.

 

The math to determine the phase out amount for a particular level of income is a little tricky. The phase out is 6% of the MAGI over $75,000 for singles and $150,000 for married couples.  For example, a married couple with a MAGI of $200,000 would be $50,000 over the income limit for the full deduction. The calculation for the reduction in the deduction would be $50,000 ($200,000 - $150,000) 6% 2 (two people) = $6,000.  This leaves the married couple with a $6,000 ($12,000 - $6,000) tax deduction.  For a single senior with a MAGI of $100,000 the calculation for the reduction in the deduction would be $25,000 ($100,000 - $75,000) 6% 1 (one person) = $1,500 leaving a $4,500 ($6,000 - $1,500) deduction.  The deduction is zero above MAGI of $150,000 for singles and MAGI of $250,000 for married couples.

 

As I said, the math is a little tricky, but it works. Keep in mind this new deduction has a short shelf life, as it ends in 2028.  

 



Harry’s Monthly EView

LayLine Asset Management Inc

Harry J. Campbell III, CMT

1/6/26

  

Contents

Investment Thesis: Large Language Models (A.I.)

Investing for Retirement: Tactical and Strategic Investing Revisited

Retirement Topics: RMD Distribution Rates

 

Investment Thesis: The Communication Economy

 

Thesis Statement

The central claim is that Communication, and what develops from it, will be the primary force in the economy, driving growth, structure, diversity, and resiliency in the US economy for a very long time to come.

  

Large Language Models (A.I.)

(Originally Published 2/7/2024)

           

While this was written almost two years ago, it remains relevant to the investment thesis.

 

Generative large language models (LLM), commonly referred to as artificial intelligence (A.I.), are the first in what will be a long line of communication revelations that are going to stretch our perceptions of communication.  Just to confuse things a little more, there are also small language models being developed to concentrate on smaller data sets or specific types of results.  So what is a large or small language model and what does it do.  Without being a programmer it’s hard to understand or appreciate the sophistication and mechanics behind the algorithms that drive the models. What is understood is that the algorithms that make up the models are much more efficient then prior algorithms in the processing data, very large quantities of data.  While faster is great, these models process the data in such a way that allows the coded software to generate responses, if you will, conversations.

 

            Down the road (not that far), the skies the limit in dreaming up applications for large and small language models.  But in the here and now, for most of us, these models offer a new way to search for information on the internet and more importantly, the data is presented in conversation form. Up until recently, most of us would go to a search engine (google, Safari) type in a question and search through all the pages of results to find the answer.  Not all that efficient considering the time necessary to read through all the different search results to find the answer.  Today, simply ask Co-Pilot (Microsoft A.I. companion, their word not mine) or another A.I. app the same question and moments later it spits out an answer, in conversation format.  In the very near future, large language model software and hardware (specific A.I. chips) will be available in smartphones, home computers, and laptops.

 

In literally every sector of the economy there is race by businesses to implement large and small language models, otherwise be left behind.  Whether it be a bank updating its call center with A.I. so customers can converse with an A.I. voice (rather than going through all those prompts), or a programmer speeding up writing code with an A.I. assistant, or an investment adviser researching GDP and getting a detailed answer (and correct) in seconds.  These language models represent a significant upgrade in how businesses communicate, whether that be with employees, customers, machines, or in operations.  The logical end result will be increases in productivity, at least that’s the theory.

 

We are in the early stages of implementing these models, and similar to the early days searching the internet, it’s a bit of a challenge.  It’s been reported that large language models can sometimes produce less than stellar results.  I will confirm that it is not that difficult to confuse a large language model and get it to tell you anything, even if it is wrong or completely made up.  Does this mean that these language models are not worth the time and effort to develop, nothing could be further from that. It’s that we need to recognize we are the beginning of a new and revolutionary (the ability to communicate with a machine) form of communication and it’s going to be a challenge adopting to it.

  

Investing for Retirement

 

Tactical and Strategic Investing Revisited

 

In the current investing environment, substantial changes in the structure of the economy will make strategic positions, meant to be held over long periods of time, more of a challenge to hold with rapidly evolving periods of market change.  At the same time, the velocity (speed and direction) of changes will present tactical investing with response challenges (how fast or slow to react).  To help understand what is meant by a “tactical investment” or a “strategic hold”, a reprint of  “Tactical and Strategic” is included to provide some basics for these two investing strategies. 

  

 Tactical and Strategic

(Originally published 10/15/19)

 

For this conversation, tactical and strategic are references to how we allocate investment assets in a portfolio and objectives for a portfolio. First, some working definitions.

 

  • Tactical: Smaller (in terms of amount invested and/or the expected time to hold) scale actions implemented to achieve a strategic objective.

  • Strategic: Larger (in terms of amount invested and/or the expected time to hold) scale actions designed to achieve specific investment objectives.

 

One way to look at it, tactical is how we are going to get there, strategic is where we want to get to. These are not static decisions, particularly tactical positioning. When starting out on a road trip, tactically we map out our directions (take 494 to 35W south and so on) to get us to our destination, our strategic objective.  If along the way we hit a detour, our tactical approach must change, however, the destination (strategic objective) does not change. However, if the car breaks down, that might change our final destination.

 

Tactical investing involves positioning (buying and selling) investments to achieve a desired result in the shorter term (short term can be years in a strategic portfolio with a multi‐decade objective), ultimately contributing to the strategic objective. Tactical investing should be complementary to the strategic objective. Its critical function is to contribute to achieving a stated strategic objective, whether that be to retire in a certain year with a certain amount of assets, or to raise enough capital for a down payment by a certain point in time.

 

Strategic investing involves positioning (buying and selling) investments to achieve a desired result in the longer‐term, ultimately to serve the long‐term objective. While it may sound familiar, just a difference in time frame, strategic positioning takes patience, time. Strategic positions are typically purchased for the long run. For example, buying a 25‐year Muni bond. The likely intentions are to hold till maturity, 25 years, earn tax free income for those 25 years, and get the principal back at maturity, all of it. A strategic equity position might be a stock held for decades that pays a dividend. If it has appreciated considerably and the company has increased its dividends regularly, the actual dividend yield is much higher than the published yield. Sometimes an inherited position presents a strategic opportunity or a speculative position becomes a strategic position over time.

 

Strategic and tactical also apply to a portfolio’s overall strategy with the same overriding principal, tactical is a shorter‐term strategy to contribute to achieving the longer‐term strategic objective. There can be more than one strategic objective active at any given time, requiring a multitude of tactical strategies to support and contribute to achieving multiple strategic objectives. Some extremes in the strategies; short‐term equity trading account would be considered purely tactical, and a buy and hold bond portfolio purely strategic. Most investment strategies, however, employee a degree of both tactical and strategic strategies and positioning.

 

Retirement Topic

 

RMD Distribution Rates

(Updated 1/6/26)

 

            When planning for retirement income sources and amounts over time, be aware that the RMD (required minimum distribution) on certain retirement accounts, as a percent of the account, increases over time.  The analysis below is to provide some insight on how the RMD increases as we age.

 

Age             IRS Distribution Period        RMD Amount            RMD Percent

  73                              26.5                             $3773.59                       3.7%

  83                              17.7                             $5649.71                       5.7%

  93                              10.1                             $9900.99                       9.9%

103                                5.2                           $19230.77                     19.2%


The above example is for an IRA with a value of $100,000.  The calculation is to take the value of the account, that requires an RMD, as of the first of the year and divide it by the IRS Distribution Period from the appropriate IRS table.  I do recommend that you have the custodian of any retirement accounts that require an RMD do the calculations as investors particular situations can make the calculations quite complicated.  The above example used IRS Distribution Period data from Appendix B. Uniform Lifetime Table from IRS Publication 590-B.

 


Harry’s Monthly EView

LayLine Asset Management Inc

Harry J. Campbell III, CMT

12/2/25

  

Contents

Investment Thesis: Miscellaneous Observations

Investing for Retirement: Retirement Plan and IRA Update 2026

Retirement Topics: Reminder: New Tax Deduction for Seniors.

 

Investment Thesis: The Communication Economy

  

Thesis Statement

The central claim is that Communication, and what develops from it, will be the primary force in the economy, driving growth, structure, diversity, and resiliency in the US economy for a very long time to come.

 

Miscellaneous Observations

 

            More appropriately referred to as random thoughts, here are a few as we head towards a new year.

 

ChatGPT: It’s been three years since ChatGPT was released to the public, kick starting the Communication Economy with speed not seen in prior new economic cycles.  It’s hard to argue against the notion that ChatGPT and its publicly accessible large language models (LLM) is the most transformational new technology since the advent of the internet, smartphones and personal computers. However, all of those transformational cycles mentioned took quite some time and many different paths to develop into the technology we use every day now.  I would expect, based on history, that the same will be true for LLM.

 

Personal Productivity Gains:  The ability to have same day and short term deliveries is made possible, in large part, by organizations communicating using LLM, both with its employees and its customers.  Companies can update constantly what they have, where it is, its price, style of shipping and so on.  They are able to communicate all that information with all the employees and contractors so they can execute with a quick response time.  On Friday I needed a part to complete a project I was working on.  Instead of getting in the car and driving about 10 miles, one way, to buy the part, I had it delivered for free and it arrived in about two hours.  It would have cost about $10 in car expenses and taken almost an hour to get it, which was time I spent working on the project.  Much more productive experience.  

 

Positive Jobs Outlook:  There are two, among others, ways to consider how LLM (A.I.) will influence the workforce.  One way is to think of it in terms of how many jobs LLM will replace.  The other is to think about how LLM will be put to work improving the output of existing workers and how many new jobs will be created. When the PC entered the corporate office it was assumed that the secretary was obsolete.  As it turned out companies needed even more people to run the PC and process the data.  The PC data provided companies with valuable operating information, allowing companies to run more efficiently, profitably, allowing companies to hire more people, and so on.  Like the PC, LLM is a tool, a very powerful tool that will alter the way businesses are run.

 

Investing for Retirement

 

Retirement Plan and IRA Update 2026

 

Retirement Plan Update


This is not a complete explanation of the current retirement plan rules, phase-out ranges, catch up options, exceptions, and changes.  Visit IRS.gov, Retirement Plans for a thorough evaluation of specific plan types. 

 

  • For 2026, 401(k), 403(b) and most 457 plans increased the maximum contribution to $24,500, up from $23,500 in 2025.  For individuals 50 and over, the catch up contribution increased from $7,500 to $8,000, for a maximum contribution in 2026 of $32,500, up from $31,000 in 2025.  For individuals aged 60-63 the catch up contribution remains $11,250 for 2026.

  • SEP plan contribution limits for 2026 is 25% of earnings up to $72,000, up from $70,000 in 2025.  Compensation limits do apply.

  • Solo 401K contributions for 2026 are: employee maximum contribution is $24,500, plus $8,000 in catch up contributions for those 50 and over, and a company contribution equal to 25% of employees compensation or self-employment income.  The maximum is $72,000 plus catch up contributions for 2026.  For those 60-63, the maximum catch up contribution remains $11,250. 

  • Simple plans maximum contributions for 2026 is $17,000 up from $16,500 in 2025.  The catch up for those over 50 is $4,000 for 2026, up from $3,500 the prior year. For those 60-63, the special catch up contribution maximum remains $5,250.  Employers contribute either up to a 3% match or 2% nonelective contribution.

 

IRA Update

 

While on the topic retirement investing, there is still time to contribute to an IRA or Roth.  April 15th, 2026 is the deadline (for most of us) for IRA and Roth contributions for 2025.  Having said that here are a couple of notes;

 

  • There is now no age limit on contributing to an IRA or Roth, however there are AGI (adjusted gross income) limits on contributions to either a traditional or Roth IRA.

  • There needs to be taxable compensation earned to make contributions.

  • You can contribute to both a IRA and a company retirement plan within the contribution limits, adjusted each year.  There are phase-out ranges if married and one spouse is covered by a company retirement plan.

  • A Roth needs to be open for five years before tax free gains can be withdrawn.  After the five years and reaching 59 ½, withdrawals can be taken tax free.

  • IRA contribution limits for 2026 are $7,500 up from $7,000 for 2025.  If age 50 or older the catch up contribution is $1,100 for 2026, up from $1,000 for 2025.

 

There are many nuances regarding traditional IRA and Roth.  This is not a complete discussion, just presented to create a little awareness.  For all the details see IRS Publication 590-A for contributions details and 590-B for distribution details.

 

Retirement Topic


            Reminder: New Tax Deduction for Seniors.

 

The tax bill that was passed by Congress, commonly referred to as the OBBB, includes a new deduction for taxpayers aged 65 and older, seniors, effective for 2025 tax year.  Something to consider, if you pay estimated taxes, it might be worthwhile to consider recalculating estimated taxes for 2026 based on the new senior tax deduction.  As clearly stated in our disclosures, we don’t provide tax advice, having said that, here are the basics:

 

  • A $6,000 deduction is available, starting in 2025, for single seniors with MAGI (modified adjusted gross income) up to $75,000 and a $12,000 ($6,000 * two people) deduction for married seniors with MAGI (modified adjusted gross income) up to $150,000.

  • Above those income levels the deduction is phased out and becomes zero at $150,000 for singles and $250,000 for married, filing jointly.

 

The math to determine the phase out amount for a particular level of income is a little tricky. The phase out is 6% of the MAGI over $75,000 for singles and $150,000 for married couples.  For example, a married couple with a MAGI of $200,000 would be $50,000 over the income limit for the full deduction. The calculation for the reduction in the deduction would be $50,000 ($200,000 - $150,000) 6% 2 (two people) = $6,000.  This leaves the married couple with a $6,000 ($12,000 - $6,000) tax deduction.  For a single senior with a MAGI of $100,000 the calculation for the reduction in the deduction would be $25,000 ($100,000 - $75,000) 6% 1 (one person) = $1,500 leaving a $4,500 ($6,000 - $1,500) deduction.  The deduction is zero above MAGI of $150,000 for singles and MAGI of $250,000 for married couples.

 

As I said, the math is a little tricky, but it works. Keep in mind this new deduction has a short shelf life, as it ends in 2028.   

 





Copyrighted 2026, LayLine Asset Management Inc

CMT: Charter Market Technician


 


 

 
 

Disclosures and Disclaimers

 

The material, opinions, analysis and views contained on this website are the individual perspectives of Harry J Campbell, distributed for informational purposes only and should not be considered as individualized or personalized investment advice, a solicitation to sell or a recommendation of any particular security, strategy or investment product.  My analysis, opinions, comments and estimates constitute my judgment as of the date of this material and are subject to change without notice and may in fact be completely misplaced.

 

Data contained herein from third party providers is obtained from what are considered reliable sources.  However, its accuracy, completeness or reliability cannot be guaranteed.  LayLine Asset Management Inc is not responsible for the consequences of reliance on any information, analysis or other content contained on this website.

 

Readers are encouraged to conduct their own research and due diligence, and/or obtain professional advice, prior to making any investment decision or adopting an investment strategy.  Strategies and investment techniques mentioned here does not imply suitability.  Each investor needs to review an investment strategy for their own particular situation before making any investment decision. 

 

LayLine Asset Management Inc does not give legal or tax advice.  Please consider consulting a financial, tax and/or estate professional before making investment decisions.

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